As we close the first half of 2025 and look forward, Nigeria’s economy is showing signs of slow but steady recovery. However, rising prices remain a big challenge for businesses and consumers alike.

Growth: Slow and Steady Wins the Race

Different experts have shared their views on Nigeria’s growth for 2025, and while their numbers vary, the overall message is clear: growth is coming, but it won’t be a sprint.

• World Bank: Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2025, up slightly from 3.4% last year. This boost will come mainly from sectors like banking, telecoms, and tech, plus a slow rebound in oil production. They expect growth to pick up more by 2027 if reforms continue.
  
• IMF: A bit more cautious, the IMF expects 3.0% growth in 2025, noting challenges like weak oil revenues and structural issues. They predict this may slow further to 2.7% in 2026.
  
• CardinalStone Research: More optimistic, projecting a 3.7% growth, thanks to strong oil & gas and manufacturing performance.
  
• African Development Bank: Predicts 3.4% growth, backed by better security, higher oil output, and stronger consumer spending.
  

What this means: The non-oil sectors are becoming the engines of Nigeria’s growth. Businesses tapping into these sectors have real chances to expand. But don’t expect overnight miracles — growth is gradual and depends on many moving parts. 

Inflation: The Price Tag That Won’t Quit

Inflation remains a headache. Even with a small easing in April 2025 (23.7% down from 24.2% in March), prices are still rising fast.

• The IMF warns inflation could average 26.5% in 2025 and spike even higher in 2026.
  
• Long-term forecasts suggest inflation might ease to around 15–17% by 2027 — but for now, it’s still a tough climb.
  

Imagine this: Your suppliers raise prices because fuel and electricity costs went up. Your customers have less spending power because everyday items cost more. This squeeze makes running a business harder and calls for smart cost and pricing strategies.

What Businesses Should Watch in H2 2025

1. Look for Growth Areas: Financial services, tech, telecoms, and manufacturing show promise. Explore opportunities here but stay flexible.
   
2. Plan for Inflation: Build inflation into your budgets and pricing. Don’t get caught off guard by rising costs.
   
3. Manage Currency Risks: The naira may stay shaky despite efforts to stabilize it. If you deal with imports or cross-border payments, work with experts to minimize losses from exchange rate swings.

Bottom Line

Nigeria’s economy in the second half of 2025 offers a mix of hope and caution. Growth is expected but tempered by persistent inflation and currency pressures. For businesses especially those handling cross-border payments,  success means staying informed, being adaptable, and partnering with trusted financial experts.

At Bluebulb, we’re here to help you navigate these challenges smoothly, keeping your business resilient and ready for growth.